THE AUCTION MARKET THEORY ACADEMY
"UNDERSTANDING THE SCIENCE OF MARKET STRUCTURE"
"APPLYING THE ART OF TACTICS"
"CREATING A GREAT TRADE"
DTS MAY 2008
DATE
GOAL FOR THE DAY
GRADE
5/1
ENTRY
F,B+,A,B+
5/2
ENTRY
C+, A
5/5
ENTRY
B
5/6
ENTRY
A, C+
5/7
ENTRY
F
5/8
ENTRY
B+, A
5/9
ENTRY
F, A, B+
5/12
ENTRY
B+
5/13
ENTRY
A, B
5/14
ENTRY
C-,A
5/15
ENTRY
D-,F
5/16
ENTRY
A+,B, D-
5/19
ENTRY
F,D-, A,C-,A
5/20
ENTRY
D-,A,C-,B+,C
5/21
ENTRY
A+,B
5/22
ENTRY
D-,A
5/23
ENTRY
D-,C,C+,C
5/27
ENTRY
C, A,C-,D-
5/28
ENTRY
B+,C,C,C,B,
5/29
ENTRY
A,B+,A,A,B,C-,B-,D,D
5/30
ENTRY
C-,A+,C-,D-,C-,B,
AVG FOR MONTH
GOAL: ENTRY
GRADE: C+
5/1
There will be no video's of the trades today, my compter is using up to many resourses with the new version of our charting software causing big blue screens if you know what I mean. Hopefully we can resume recording soon when I get that taken care of. In the AM today we got stopped out of last nights short @ 1398 a real heart breaker! We saw some responsive buying all the way to midnight, but did not get out,that cost me a bit. It took a 52 point gain down to a 12 point one. I should have readjusted my stop for the day session. I could have still made profit early or at least a break even. In the following trade we are in the G period. This trade was short@ 1401.75 with a 1407 stop ( got stopped out) loss of 21 pts. The next trade was in the H period, a short @ 1408 with a stop @ 1414, offset @1403 for a gain of 20 pts. The next trade was in the I period, a long @ 1403, with a 1400 stop, offset and reverse @ 1409.75 gain 27 pts. The next trade was that reverse, a short @ 1409.75 with a stop at 1412 in the K period, holding until the close or the stop. Update; moving stop down to 1410, 13 minutes to cash close. Update; offset @ 1408 for a gain of 7 pts. 9 minutes to cash close.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 33 PTS
5/2
There will be no video's of the trades today, my compter is using up to many resourses with the new version of our charting software causing big blue screens if you know what I mean. Hopefully we can resume recording soon when I get that taken care of. In the following trade we are in the A period. This trade was long @ 1419.25 with a 1416 stop, offset @ 1422 for a 11 pt gain. The next trade was in the B period, a short @ 1422 with a stop @ 1425, holding until the close or the stop. I will be out the rest of the day getting ready to relocate over the next few weeks. It is going to be really busy, but I will do as much trading as possible. I think we can at least fill the gap, and test the 1390's. If I was at the desk I would be a buyer at the 1390's first time down if volume lightens up down there. I will keep up my chart books, doing most of the website work on the weekends, late evenings. Good trading~~ UPDATE, It is about 1230 eastern, and we just filled the gap from yesterday, and not much of a buy response. I am leaving the premisis with a good feeling about our short. I am moving the stop down to break even @ 1422 and will exit when I get back in the globex probably. Worst case senerio is a winning day, and half the day I wasnt even here! If only I could do this more often! LOL Good trading Update, 10:30 PM, I forgot today was friday, there is no Globex until Sunday, Oh well, lets hope it doesnt gap up on Sundays open above 1422! It would have been nice to get out before the late day short covering into the close!
UPDATE ON THE OPEN POSITION, IT IS CLOSED @ THE OPEN OF GLOBEX@1413.50
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 45 PTS
5/5
There will be no video's of the trades today, my compter is using up to many resourses with the new version of our charting software causing big blue screens if you know what I mean. Hopefully we can resume recording soon when I get that taken care of. In the following trade we are in the A period. This trade was short @ 1412.25 with a 1418 stop, 1 point above the N period high from friday. Our target if we can get below the 1405 level from globex is 1403. I would look to buy if volume dries up down at the 1388-1390 level. UPDATE @ 10:30 I am moving my stop down to 1416, the B period high, my target is the same although selling volume is drying up down here in the 1408's, I have to step away from the desk, so i dont mind risking 4 points/contract to reach our goal at 1403. UPDATE @ 11:18 OUT @ 1406 Considering that I have a lot of things to do relocating over the next weeks, this is close enough to our target for a winning day. Volume couldnt push it to support at 1403. I wouldnt be suprised though that later on we break 1403 on our way to 1388-1390. I just wont be here for that opportunity. Good trading, off the the rest of the day.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 25 PTS
5/6
There will be no video's of the trades today, my compter is using up to many resourses with the new version of our charting software causing big blue screens if you know what I mean. Hopefully we can resume recording soon when I get that taken care of. In the following trade we are in the beginning of the B period. This trade was long @ 1398.75 with a 1392.50 stop, (the B period high of 5/1) Note the retest of the lows @ 9:53 compared to that of the low @ 9:49 on less volume and the volume deltas turned positive. The target is the consolidation line from yesterday@ 1409's. UPDATE @ 11AM~~ We are moving in the right direction, currently at 1405, so I am moving my stop up to break even @ 1398.75 UPDATE out @ 1406@ 11:08, volume is drying up at the high. Time to do more moving! Back at the desk for a bit, I took a short during the I period @1417 around 1:45 pm on the retest of the H period high, stop is 1418, if it breaks above the high, we area going higher there is no need to risk more than that, target is the close. UPDATE @ 2:22, OUT @ 1413.25, it looks like there is passive buying at the 1412-1413 area. That is it for the day, back to packing! Good Trading!
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 44 PTS
5/7
There will be no video's of the trades today, my compter is using up to many resourses with the new version of our charting software causing big blue screens if you know what I mean. Hopefully we can resume recording soon when I get that taken care of. In the following trade we are in the J period, long @ 1407.75 with the target at the close, with a 1404 stop. It seems that selling volume is drying up, but I am aware of the fact that the C period high didnt take out yesterdays high, but I hate to be a seller down here, and I wasnt here this morning to take a short. There should be some support at the 1405-1406 area, so our stop is right below that. If we break down, I think the 1388-1390 area that we talked about will be hit. If that fails Ithink we rotate down to fill the gap @ the 1338's. UPDATE, we got stopped out. I would be looking to sell the rallies until we get futher down now.
TOTAL LOSS FOR THE DAY 15 PTS
5/8
There will be no video's of the trades today, my compter is using up to many resourses with the new version of our charting software causing big blue screens if you know what I mean. I am short near the end of the A period @ 1398.50 when the market stopped at the negitive volume cluster from yesterday near the K period high. At 9:51-9:56 there was passive selling on the retest of the A period high at the 98's-99's. Our stop is at 1401.50. If we break below yesterdays low or the 88-90 area, I will try and stay short. If not, I will move my stop down and look for longs and shorts today. UPDATE @ 10:24 am, I am moving my stop down to breakeven @ 1398.50. UPDATE@ 10:46 OUT @ 1392. There is passive buying down here in the 1390's for now, so I am taking my points and will do some more packing. Good trading to you! Back at the desk, I am short in the E period @ 1398.50 on the retest of the D period high. It seems like there is passive selling up here. My stop is 1401. My target is the 1390 area. UPDATE @ 12:08pm, I am moving my stop down to just above break even at 1399.50. We are trading in a line, the sellers havent hit the bid yet so why risk much more than a point? UPDATE @ 12:31pm, OUT @ 1393.50, I have to get some more things packed, I may look in latter in the afternoon session, but I dont feel like sitting though the 2 hour lunch period. I would have like to get to the B and D period low at 1392, but I got another 20 combined points, so I feel OK.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 46 PTS
5/9
I am short in the B period @ 1387.50 . This short my be early as the gap from the close is above us at 91.50, so my stop is a 1393. UPDATE, Got stopped out, loss of 22 pts. The market went to 93.25, what is up with that? LOL. I am short agian in the C period. There is passive selling up here almost 10,000 combined contracts traded in the 92.75-93 area. My stop is 1399 right above the N and M period from yesterday. UPDATE @ 12:00PM, Nice fill almost at the high tick for the day. I am moving my stop down to breakeven @ 1393. I looks like there is a struggle down here in the 1386-1388 area, if this breaks, we are probably headed to the 1370's, possibly pausing at the 1383's the lows of 4/30 and 5/1. I am going to try and stay short untill the close if at all possible. UPDATE @ 15:28 OUT @ 1388 The market couldnt break below the A period low, suprising the lack of selling near the low of the day. Gain 20 points. I am trying one last trade, short at 1392 in the M period @ 15:41 hours, stop is at 1395, a couple of points above this M period high. There is a nice formation in the NYSE tick chart and the volume is drying up on the rotation upward in the M period. Target is the high volume cluster around 1387.50 UPDATE @ 15:52 OUT @ 1388.25 Gain 15 pts
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 13 PTS
5/12
I am long in the B period @ 1389.50 @10:00 am. This long may be early as the low from globex is 1386.50 and the I period low from friday is @ 1384, none the less, selling volume delta's are drying up, and we took out the majority of the overnight inventory. My stop is the I period low from friday @ 1384. UPDATE @ 11:30am, we are moving in the right direction, there are higher highs and higher lows thus far to through the D period. We blew right threw fridays value area, so my target is the high end of value from thursdays auction near the 1397's. UPDATE @ 11:59PM, OUT, @ 1397.50. There is negative divergance at the high, and I belive passive selling up here. We are taking our points, and taking the lunch period off to do some packing. YES!!~~nice morning trade. I would think there will be first TPO selling up near the 1403-1405 area, but I wont be here for the short. Good Trading to you!
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 32 PTS
5/13
I am short in the A period @ 1407.25 @9:32 am anticipating the Globex inventory to be equalized. My stop is 1412, over the high of Globex. My target is 1395. UPDATE@ 9:54 We are moving in the right direction, but my target is going to change, it looks like we could have an open drive down day. The XLF, XLE, and the XLB and the S&P are moving in the same diretion with high volume. My new target is the 1389's at least. Standing by to see, I am also moving my stop down to break even@ 1407.25. UPDATE@10:31 It seems that we dont have a open drive day down, the end of the B period had trouble in its continutation. OUT @ 1402.50. Gain 19 pts. I am short agian @ 1402@ 10:41am The NYSE tick chart showed less buying and couldnt even match the buying from the first upthrust at 10:20. We also had a negative 5000 delta confirmed after for most of the C period showed positive bias. My stop on this trade is 1404, just above the C period high. Our target is the previous target at 1389's. Also the XLF was making lower highs as compared to the S&P during the same time was making higher highs. Check out the comparision from 10:25- 10:45 on the XLF and S&P. UPDATE, there is agian another divergence in the XLF and the S&P. Check out from 11:20-11:35 eastern time. I am anticipating a lower low in this E period even though we are consolidating here in the 1397's -1400's. I am moving my stop down to break even @ 1402@ 11:34am, that happens to be just above the D period high also. UPDATE, OUT @ 11:46am @ 1399.25, the market is not breaking below the D period low. On the retest of the lows, selling volume dried up. I am probably done for the day, taken my points and back to packing! Good trading to you.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 30 PTS
5/14
I am short in the C period @ 1416.25 @ 10:41 with a stop just above the days high @ 1418. The reason for the tight stop is they might run the stops above us in the 1420's from 5/2 or 5/6. There is a divergence in the XLF and the S&P and the NYSE tick is weaking. Our target is yesterdays close @1404. UPDATE @11:46am , We are pressing the highs, but still have a week NYSE tick and a divergence in the XLF, If I get stopped out I will look for a reentry up above the recent highs. If we move down I will probably change my target since it looks like short covering and it no selling comes in the D or B period lows might be the days rotational range.UPDATE @ 12:12 eastern, agian we press the high, and agian, I see no exciting formation on the NYSE tick that tells me we are breaking out. There seems to be passive selling right here in the 1417's, we are sticking with our 1418 stop though. If it does break up, I think the 1422's-1426's offer a good short position.UPDATE @ 1:01pm, we are agian pressing the high with lackluster conviction. If I get stopped out, I will probably be done for the day, this is not facilitating trade at all. UPDATE @ 1:06, Stopped out @ 1418. loss 7 pts. One more shot, short @ 1418.50@ 1:10pm, the stop is above the recent highs @ 1426, target is the overnight gap @ 1405. UPDATE @ 3:13PM, Finally we are moving back toward the other end of value. I may hold this position into Globex, keeping my target of 1405 or even 1395-1397's as another target depending on what happens in this last hour. UPDATE @ 4:43PM, I am moving my stop down to just above the M period high @ 1415.50 and targeting the 1395's-1397's. I think we could rotate even futher down to the 1338's, but I will take my points in the 1390's. After a hard day in the beginning of the day, it is nice to see the laggards buy the high once agian. Good trading to you! UPDATE @ 4:12 AM eastern, OUT @ 1408.50, The Globex didnt follow though to the downside, and with Europe open, it seems that there is support down in the 1405-1406 area. I am taken my points and going back to bed! LOL I will see if the open in NY can rally us back to the 1415-1419 area or sell us down to the 1395 area.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 33 PTS
5/15
I am short in the B period @ 1410.25 @ 10:06 with a stop @ 1416.50, the high volume cluster that took us up to yesterdays high. That cluster starts around 1413-1416. The XLF is diverging and the NYSE tick is weak. We need to take the Globex low out soon to reach my target @ 1395-1397's. UPDATE @ 10:27AM, we are moving in the wrong direction retesting the B period high, but I dont see any thing that would change my stance. UPDATE @11:52, I almost went short on another 4 lot 2 ticks from the high, but talked myself out of it. Back in January I used that strategy succsessfully on a few occasions, such as today, where you have a floor dominated market, tight range, and your position is slightly early, employing that strategy when you have the opportunity to better the position, in this case by 3 points or so, I could have been short in the 1413's, given back the 1410.25's for a break even, you would put a stop on the new 4 lot at the same stop as your original four lot. The key is to be disiplined and give back you first lot of contracts at the break even point.That strategy would have also enabled me by now to move my stop down to break even, while holding the new postition. Instead, we held the 1410.25's with our original stop. I am moving my stop down to 1415, I am moving my target up, as it looks like a range bound day. My new target is the B period low @ the 1407's UPDATE @ 12:11pm, We are back at the highs, I will look for another entry at around 1416.50 if we get stopped out of the 1410.25's. There is also resistance up at the 1420's. UPDATE @ 12:25pm, Got stopped out, loss of 19pts. UPDATE, We are short @ 1414.25 with our stop at 1421 above yesterdays high volume cluster in the 1420's. It is now 12:44pm, and we tested 1418. looks like I was early on this entry too. The one thing that concerns me is that the XLF is screaming ahead, but 1420's should offer resistance. I could move my stop down to 1418's but that is a little close for my taste. We are though, trading stat high volume from the F period on. UPDATE @ 1:44PM, I am moving the stop down to 1418.25. If we break above that we could retest the 1420's. UPDATE @2:11pm, Got stopped out agian, loss 16 pts. I am going to try this one more time, Short @ 1424 @ 3:46pm, the stop is 1426. OUT @ 1424.25 . My error in judgement goes back to a key reference point that I missed in the A period, and latter in the E to F period. In the A period, not continuing to the down side by taking out yesterdays low with conviction was the first warning sign, the second was the pull back in the E period, closing at the high of the period. At that point the market was making higher highs and higher lows. Poor exection today. Tommorrow I am going to take a break.
TOTAL LOSS FOR THE DAY 36 PTS
5/16
I am short in the A period @ 1427.25 @ 9:31 with a stop @ 1431 above the Globex high, at least I expect to take the overnight inventory out down around the 1419's. UPDATE @ 10:04, I think we could test the 1414-1415's, that is my target instead of the 1419's. We will see what happens in the 1419's volume wise. The XLF is sinking fast. UPDATE @ 10:10, this market looks like it is an open drive day to this point. I am going to try and hang on as long as I can. The NYSE tick is weak. UPDATE @ 10:16 OUT @ 1421, the retest of the lows of around the 1419's was weak. The NYSE was building higher lows as price was making lower lows. I may look for a reentry. Gain 25 pts. Short @ 1421.75 @ 10:21 my stop is close at 1423 the high of the retracement. My target is the 1414-1415 area if we indeed break down. The NYSE tick couldnt even get to the 2nd standard dev. on the buy side. Exciting trade this morning, I almost got stoppped out but didnt on that last trade, it got up to 22.50 only! This C period needs to break below the B period low here, it is 10:38, so we still have time, the hit at the 2nd deviation didnt move the market a lot, so I am confident we will make lower lows be fore the C period or at the worse the D period. The XLF is taking a breather, but doesnt look like there is a lot of buying interest. If we dont start moving down agian soon though, I may scratch this trade. I have to leave soon, so I am faced with putting a wider stop and getting out latter in the day, or scratching this trade here inthe 1421's. UPDATE, OUT @ 10:45 @ 1421.25. Gain 2 pts. The NYSE tick is making higher lows, and the volume deltas are more neutral. Good trading to you
PS: A trade for the road! I am short in the end of E period @ 1418 @ 11:58 with a stop @ 1423 with a target at 1409.50 I think we can hit the other end of value from yesterday which is in the 1409's. Loss of 20 pts.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 7 PTS
5/19
I am short right at the begining of the B period @ 1429.25 @ 10:01 with a stop @ 1431 The NYSE tick chart is weaking as is the volume deltas. There is also a divergence in the XLF. Stopped out @ 10:07 @ 1431. Loss of 7 pts. I am short agian @ 1431 @ 10:13. Same thoughts as above, stop is above the B period by a couple of points @ 1433, Stopped out, loss of 8 pts. The XLF is now starting to move higher in relation to the S&P, the NYSE tick chart is showing strength. I am now long on the slight pullback to 1433 @ 10:43. My stop is down at the 1428 area where the last line of consolidation is before the last upthrust. If this trade doesnt work, back to packing.I feel a little tired, and may be misreading the market, but there is resistance up here in the 1430 area which we broke above, and resistance up in the 1450 area which is my target for the long from 1433. Finally we got on the right side of this market, everything looks good for continuation, lets see if it can continue. Considering that mostly lately that has not been the case, I feel that today, we might just break that pattern and head up to test the 1450's. I am moving my stop up to 1429 @ 12:01pm. We need at the least to stay above the C period high, hence we retest the C period low in the 1431's? The mistake I made early on in the session was, we opened right at the upper limits of the 10, 20 and 30 day distribution, and initiative buying came it at around 9:45am. I should have not shorted the 1429's or the 1431's. UPDATE @ 1:35PM I am moving my stop up to 1336. If it hits 1336 I will reevaluate. 1430-1434 would be a good retracement to get on the long side agian if I get stopped out at 1436. OUT @ 2pm @ 1436, gain 12 pts. I will look at the action a llittle lower in the 1430-1434 area. UPDATE @ 2:16, looks weak across the board, I am standing by until I get a clearer signal. there was no buying in the 1434-1430's at all. I am going to take a shot a the long side. Long @ 1429.75 @ 2:23 pm @ 1429.75, the stop is 1427, the current low of the J period. I thought the profile was looking more like short covering during the lunch period, to bad I didnt act on it. We will see if we can get back to the Point of control @ the 1438's. That is my target. UPDATE @ 3:18 OUT @ 1429.75, The NYSE is up and down and the POC just moved lower to the 1429 area. The NYSE tick made a higher high but price could not budge a bit, and the bar closed near its low, that is a sign of weakness. I am going to try one last trade, short @ 1430 @ 3:22, stop @ 1432, UPDATE @ 3:50 pm OUT @ 1425.25. The low of the M period was 1422.25, it looks like there might be some short covering into the close. Disappointing day. Poor execution at the open and during lunch. Time to get some much needed rest, Good trading to you.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 16 PTS
5/20
I am long in the A period @ 1418.75 @ 9:39 with a stop @ 1413.75. There was no clear signal, but I am expecting a balancing of the overnight inventory at least a little bit. My stop is below fridays low. UPDATE @ 11:01 OUT @ 1418.25 and reverse @ 1418.25. Loss of 2 pts. I am now short. The NYSE tick is making lower highs on every up thrust. The market is slow and not moving much, so I will look for just a couple of points in this dead market. My stop is 1420, right where the selling brought us down to the lows. UPDATE @ 11:08 OUT @ 1414.50 Gain 15 pts. That was quick, I think I am going to stop while I am ahead since the NYSE tick is oscillating. I am long @ 11:56 @ 1413, stop is at 1409, target is the B-C-D period high near the 1418's. The NYSE tick made a new low for the day, but closed near its high, price had a positive delta bar, and had a higher low. UPDATE @ 12:29, OUT @ 1416 Gain 12 pts. There is passive selling up in the 1416-17 area, and we have had a good push up above the 2nd SD. Short @ 1416.50@ 12:26pm. The stop is @ 1420.25 above where the initiative selling began in the A period. Our 5000 delta volume chart is building a negative bar, not yet finished, but considering the NYSE tick looks over bought in a tight market is good enough for me to try a short. The target is the consolidation line in the 1413's. UPDATE @ 12:42PM, We are heading back down during this G period toward our target. If it continues to stall as it heads toward 1413, we may take profit in the 14's. UPDATE @ 12:52 OUT @ 1414.50 Gain 8 pts. I am done for a while, I may look back in latter, time for a nap! This slow market has put me in a trance! I missed the short during the H period rally to the 1416's, during my nap, here is a similar pattern nearing the end of the L period. Short @ 3:27pm @ 1413.75, the NYSE tick chart and the volume deltas are weaking, and can't get over the 1415 level. Target is the close or the 1405's. The stop is 1416. UPDATE @ 3:45pm, The market is stalling out in the 1409's, OUT @ 1411.25. Gain 10pts. Wow, this market sure has been up and down all day. look at that 6 point rally in the end of the M period, got out just in time! Would have been nice if I went long when I got out, Agian there was a similar pattern in the NYSE tick chart as the previous trade, A change in volume deltas and a reversal in the tick, a matched low in price, but a higher low in the Tick, with a indesisive bar. Good trading to you.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 43 PTS
5/21
I am short @ the A period @ 1418.75 @ 9:46 with a stop @ 1420.50 above yesterdays A period high volume cluster that sent us lower on the day yesterday. That cluster was from about 1418.25-1420.25. My target is the 1409's UPDATE @ 10:39, the market is having trouble breaking through the 1413's. If we dont make a lower low soon, I would cosider getting out, standing by a bit longer. UPDATE @10:43 OUT @ 1413.75 gain 20 pts. I am taking a break for a bit. Son of a bitch, right after I get out we hit my target! , I would look to be a buyer at around 1405's first time down possibly, but I am stepping away for a bit, so we will see if I can catch the trade when I get back. I am long @1408.75 with a stop just below this D period low, it looks like passive buying down here at yesterdays low, if they break the 1408 we could take out the stops 2 pts below the 1407's which would put us down to the 1405's that I spoke about earlier. My stop is 1407.75. I am only risking 1 point per contract on this trade since I will be away from the desk for a bit. My target is 1414. UPDATE @ 12:19, OUT @ 1411.75. I see it hit the 1413.50 right at the bottom of the volume cluster in the C period that took us to the low. I should have targeted the 1413's instead. Gain 12 PTS. Time to do more packing, off for the rest of the day, probably, Good trading to you!
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 32 PTS
5/22
I am short @ the B period @ 1395.50 @ 10:13 with a stop @ 1401 above yesterdays high volume cluster that sent us lower toward the close. That cluster is from 1397-1400.50. This entry may be a bit early, I would have like to actually tested the cluster, but consider the slow open and the fact that 1383 is support and not that far away, I am taking a shot. If it does take out Globex's high, but doesnt stop us out, my target is the 1383-1385's. Volume is drying up in the 1395-96's and the NYSE tick looks tenative. The one caveat is the XLF is making higher highs though. UPDATE @ 10:46, Well once agian, due to lack of patience my trade location was early. Sure enough we tested that volume cluster, and I think I could have gotten the 98's instead of the 95's. Both the NYSE t, and the XLF are turning. Lets see if we can take out the 92 B period low. UPDATE @ 12:47, It is the wrong day to be patient. I saw the break to 1390.50, with the NYSE tick making higher lows, but didnt get out. I also missed a small block from yesterdays M and N period right in the 1390 area that should have been another confirmation that the market wasnt ready to test the 1383's on the first time down toward the 1390's. That cost me 20 pts, and a possible long back toward the other end of value in this balanced day. So, now that we are back to my entry, I will take a chance and infer that the block of resistance will still hold, and we will rotate back down toward the 1390, and reevaluate. UPDATE @ 1:57, One lapse in concentration is all it took on a day like today, a small range balancing market to lose profit and miss other opportunities. With the comment above expecting a rotation down I believe is correct, the error though, was as the price came back to my break even after being in the money 5 pts per contract, I should have acted on what I knew was a greater probability, and that was a test of the other end of the days value area, which we are doing right now. That would have allowed me to give back the 95's and taken something better , say the 98's, expecting a rotation back at least to the mean, if not the other end of value. So, now its a game of luck, I sit with the 95.50's with our original stop at 1401, wasting all day, when I could have taken 20 pts at the low, I saw the opportunity, and even possibly went long. Even if I didnt get long, at least I could have had another short at a better price anticipating a move back toward the mean or the other end of value. The Balancing day became quite evident when the price came back tothe 95's during the G period. So the price for that error, I sit and watch a rather slow market not being able to trade because I am locked into that early short. Lesson hopefully remembered. Boy, there are a lot of lessons to remember! UPDATE @ 2:34 OUT @ 1393.50. In this tight range market, you cant make mistakes! We are back in the 1395's again at 3pm, so unless we break the C, I high or the A, F, J low, I will stand aside. Good trading to you! One more quick trade, Long @ 91.50, stop @ 1391 @ 3:37. I am only risking to a tick below this M period low, expecting a return to our target which is the POC @ the 1395's UPDATE @ 3:40, SO FAR SO GOO, WE ARE AT 1394.25, ANOTHER POINT AND WE ARE OUT WITH MORE PROFIT IN A FEW MINUTES THAT THAT FIRST TRADE THAT KEPT ME LOCKED UP ALL DAY! UPDATE @ 3:42 We are stalling out, OUT @ 1394, gain 10pts Good trading to you!
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 18 PTS
5/23
I am long in the beginning of the B period @ 1384 @ 10:01 with a stop @ 1381.50. The 1383's should offer support, as it is where the market rallied from the FOMC announcement and the 1st of the month rally. Right after I got filled, I could have gotten the 82.75's or the 83's but why complain! My first target is the gap @ 1393's. If support holds though, we could test the 1408's UPDATE @ 10:29, We are retesting the lows, just got stopped out, will look to see the action in the 1380's, the only thing I can do now is wait for a retracement to get short, as the 1383's seem to have failed. loss of 10pts. Things look weak, hesitatingly I am going to sell near the lows here, it is a killer trying to wait for a retracement up to the 1384's. My stop is wide on this trade. Short @ 1379.50 @ 10:45, stop is 1385. My target is the 1368's. UPDATE @ 11:37 OUT, A lower low in price, volume is drying up and the NYSE ti is making higher lows. A pattern that I see a bit that works. Gain 14 pts. We are back at the 1379's @ 12:05pm I am short agian @ 1379.25, with the same stop @ 1385. I should have reversed at the last exit @ 1376, I could have got another 3 pts per contract. When I see that pattern agian I think I will try it. My target is the same the 1368's- 1370's. UPDATE @ 12:51, I am moving my stop down to 1381.50 since we are having trouble breaking below the E period low. UPDATE @ 2:01 OUT @1375, This up and down during the lunch period could have been traded, but I stepped away for a bit, I will look to sell the I or F period highs agian. Gain 18 pts. I am short @ 1378.25 @ 2:31pm with a 1380.50 stop, target is the G-H-I-J period lows around 1373's. Stopped out @ 2:51pm, loss 9 pts. Short agian right after getting stopped out @ 1380.25, My stop is 1382.50. this is probably where my stop should have been on the last trade. My target is the same down around the 1373's. UPDATE @ 3:20 OUT @ 1376.50. I have to do some packing. It would have been nice to wait for the 1373's, I think the M or N period can get down there, but for me~~ I AM OUTTA HERE! Good Trading to you!
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 28 PTS
5/27
I am short @ the A period @ 1380 @ 9:47 with a stop @ 1385 above fridays high volume cluster that sent us lower on the day. UPDATE @ 10:08, It seems that we were early, as we are testing the volume cluster in the 1383's-1384's now. I seem to be early by a couple of points when considering these clusters. We havent gotten stoped out yet, if I do, I will look to reenter possibly in the 88's, if all is well. Having said that, I think our range could be from 1385's to the 1375's during the day. There is also a big divergence in the XLF. UPDATE @ 11:22, We are moving in the right direction after a weak retest of the 1382's. This is an important area, we just tested the A period low, and we need to keep moving down to fill the gap @ 1374, that is my target. UPDATE @ 11:32, We are dying down here in the 76's, the E period opened up, we are retesting the A and D period low now, almost at my target, OUT @ 1375 @ 11:33. Gain 20pts. Long 1374 @ 12:04, expecting a rotation to test the other end of value in the 1380's, my stop is just below the lows at 1372.50. A lower low in price, a higher low in the tick, and volume deltas also. UPDATE @ 12:26, We are slowly grinding higher, we are at the E period high right now during the current F period. The G period opens up in 3 minutes, we should break though it, there is a little resistance, once we do, 1380 is in the sites. UPDATE @ 12:31 OUT @ 1376.50, there isnt enough buying interest to get up past the volume cluster that sent us to the lows of the day from the 1376's-1377's. I have to do some more moving, I wouldnt be surpised that it does break though to the 1380's at some point though, if it does, that would be a good area for a short expecting a rotation back toward the days low. UPDATE, Short @ 2:02 @ 1380, My stop is 1384, above the volume cluster from this morning that sent us down to the lows. My target is the 1373-1274's We have a higher high in price, a flattening of the tick, but we dont have decreasing delta, that is a concern, but not enough to keep me out of the postition with our current stop,and we are at the bottom of the volume cluster that sent us to the lows in the F period. UPDATE @ 2:06, We are retesting the 1380's, so far the retest looks like passive sellers are entering the market agian, now we need to intiate trade at the bid. UPDATE @ 2:42, The sellers didnt initiate trade in the 1378-1380 area, it looks like we are going to get stopped out, we havent yet, lets see if they take the stops 2 pts above the A period high. If they do, I would be short above the B period high, thus far 1384.75 is the high. There is the stop, out, loss 16 points, looking to reenter, Short @ 1384.50 @ 2:45, target is the 1375's, My stop is tight, right above the K period high at 1386.50. UPDATE @ 3:31, As much as I would like to short this above value again, I will not, I have to do some moving, but there is still plenty of time left for a return to the POC @ the 1376's. loss of 8 pts.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 6 PTS
5/28
I am short @ the A period @ 1388 @ 9:35 with a stop @ 1393 above the A period high. My target is the 1380's. UPDATE @ 10:14, We almost hit our target, it seems that the 83's are offering a little support, if they break, the 1379-1380 area is in sight. The NYSE tick is looking weak as is the XLF. We are also building 5000 negative deltas quickly and all the rallys are being sold. I am moving my stop down to break even @ 1388. UPDATE, OUT @ 1380.75 @ 10:21 Gain 29 pts. We hit the 1380.25 tick and stalled. It looks like we are going to test the 1384's before heading lower, I will look for another entry. Short @ 1383 @ 10:36, the stop is 1385 just above the recent line of consolidation in the 82's-84's. I wouldnt be surprised that we get stopped out on this trade, as I think we are early, and the stop should actually be up around 1387 above the volume cluster in the A period that took us lower. If I so get stopped out, I will look for a reentry somewhere closer to teh 1386-87 area. UPDATE, stopped out,loss of 8 pts. Short @ 1384.25 @ 10:48, my stop is 1387, above that cluster I just spoke about. I almost move my stop, in retrospect I should have, because I recognized a mistake in its placement. Even though I have a better trade location on this entry, with the correct stop, If I see a mistake I am going to correct it and not have to suffer the market hitting my stop to the tick. This has happend more than a few times. UPDATE @ 11:01, We are moving in the wrong direction, I should have at least waited for a 50 or 61.8% retracement, that would have gotten us the 85's or 86's instead of the 84's, and the 85's are right in the middle of the volume cluster that I was speaking about. UPDATE @ 11:26 OUT @ 1381.50, There is little volume accompining this move down to test the low. I might get back on board if we have a upward rotation, or break below the B period low on light volume, I would consider a long back to the other end of value near the 1386's gain 11 pts. Short @ 1383 @ 11:52, my stop is 1386.25, just above the D period high, we just touched the 2nd SD on the NYSE tick, both times prevously met with a sell response. My target is the 1377's, the other end of yesterdays value area. UPDATE @ 12:01, We broke below the B period low on increasing volume so I will not look to exit and reverse, like I spoke about earlier, I am stand tight till we reach the target at the 1377's. UPDATE@ 12:06, OUT @ 1379.50. I missed recognizing a volume cluster in the 1379's that sent us higher on the day yesterday that might offer support. Its not a hugh cluster, but may be enough for a stopping point. The NYSE tick has been weak all day, but over the last hour has been showing signs of less selling interest. gain 14 pts. WOW, what a bounce off of the 1377.75! That would have been a nice reverse. That one trade if taken would have been equal to a grand in less than 5 minutes! Lots of room for progress!!!! Short @ 1385.25 @ 1:21, my stop is @ 1387.50. just above the B period high. My target is the C,D,E period lows in the 1381's. The thought on this trade is we are testing the C and B period highs, and the volume cluster associated with the sell off to the lows of the day, and we have weaking tick with decreasing positive volume delta's, there is also a divergence in the XLF. I am expecting a rotation back toward the lows. UPDATE @ 1:42 We are close, trading in the low 82's, OUT @ 1381.75 @ 1:43. gain 14 pts. That's all folks! Back to moving and napping! Good trading to you!
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 60 PTS
5/29
I am long in the beginning of the A period @ 1390.75 @ 9:36 with a stop @ 1385.75. The stop is right below the C, H, I period highs from yesterday. I think we can test the upper end of value from 5/22 or the highs of that day also. Our target is toward the 1400 level. I think the test of the 1383-1385 support levels over the last few days and the rejection of the 1377 level is support for us to trade higher into June. UPDATE @ 10:07, There is a big negative delta block of volume in the 92's, I am not surprised, as on 5/22 the 93's has some selling pressure there, but my hopes for a open drive day are gone. Now since we have a floor driven open, what to do? I think our stop is correct, so we will watch the action down around the 85's if we get that low. The NYSE tick is looking relativily strong on the retracement down., So we wait. UPDATE,out @ 10:31 @ 1393, gain 9 pts, heavy passive selling at the 1394's. I can see the type of day this is going tobe, up, down up down, minute by minute, should be fun!! LETS SEE, Long @ 1389.50 @ 10:35, stop 1388, reason?, less volume on the retest on the 5 tick reversal chart., UPDATE @ 10:38 OUT @ 1392.75 gain 13 pts. THAT WAS FAST AND AGRESSIVE! This is the area on a quick retest where the intititive selling took us down to the 1388's. I need a break after that one! I am hesatatingly long @ the highs of the C period @ 1394.50@ 10:45, I think we can break higher toward the 1400 area, now that the market has worn everybody out! My stop is @ 1392., Man o Man, a minute latter we are up in the 97's, this is a quick market today, My target is 1400. UPDATE @ 10:51, we are stalling up here in the 1396's, oh, hold on, the 97's are trading now, 1400 should be on its way, 98's are trading,UPDATE @ 10:54, There teasing me up here in the 97's 98's, OUT @ 1397.75 gain 13 pts. Long @ 11:14 @ 1398.25, my stop is 1395, my target is the 1400-1403 area. There is a big ass 5000 blue delta bar forming, if the market breaks higher, these folks that are passive sellers will cover in a heart beat. Lets see~~ UPDATE @ 11:20, I am changing my stop, and moving it up by a point to 1396. UPDATE @ 11:25, As time moves on, and we stall up here, this trade doesnt feel as good to be long at the high, we need to break up during the next 4 minutes before the E period opens up. 3 minutes to the E period open, trading in the 98's. The E period just opened up. UPDATE @ 11:34, We are consolidating for a while up here, that is probably a positive thing considering the strong tick, we will stay with our stop and see if we break higher, If I get stopped out, I would look for a long entry somewhere in the 1393-1395's UPDATE @ 11:49, We are back in the 98's 99's, here we go!!~~Well, we havent seen any short covering yet, hold on, 1401's just traded @ 11:57~~OUT @ 11:58@1400.50, The market isnt short covering, surprising, it looks like two sided trade. gain 9 pts. Long @ 12:14 @ 1400.75, expecting short covering, my stop is close @ 1398 just in case it doesnt happen. UPDATE, @ 12:32, WE ARE ON THE MOVE, Slowly grinding higher, I think if we get over the 1403, short covering could come in, I am changing my target and leaving open to my discretion. UPDATE @ 12:51, MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION! UPDATE @ 12:59 My new target is the 1408's-1410's. I am moving my stop up to break even @ 1400.75. UPDATE @ 1:17 @ 1403.75 We are stalling up here, not much short covering yet, we will look for a reentry lower. gain 12pts. UPDATE @ 1:24, We are trading in the 1402's, I would like the market to get back to the volume cluster at the 97-99's, that might be asking to much,~~ not much of a retracement, long @ 1403.25 @ 1:28pm. My stop is 1399, just above the consolidation line. UPDATE @ 1:49, trading inthe 1404's, lets get some short covering!! THIS IS TORTURE, but I will stay by the position until it hits the stop. UPDATE @ 2:09, I am moving my stop up to 1401 to cut the torture a bit. lol. If this market doesnt break up soon, we could very well trade quickly to the POC at the 1397's, then down to the other end of value at the 1393's. UPDATE @ 2:15, FINALLY THEY ARE BIDDING UP THE MARKET, TRADING IN THE 1405'S. LETS GO!! UPDATE @ 2:26, OUT @ 1405.25, This grinding is driving me nuts! gain 8 pts. This could very well be the high if the upcoming K period takes out the 1402's, I would be less inclined to buy the 1402's agian, and would wait for the 97-99's. OH, i missed a signal for a short at 1406's right after I got out at 1405.25, damn. Trading 1401's now, that would have been another easy 20 pts damn damn. I am running out of energy. Short @ 2:56 @1402.75. the stop is 1405. My target is the 1399's. UPDATE @ 3:01, ALMOST THERE, TRADING 1400'S~~dont stall now! OUT @ 1399.50 @ 3:04 Gain 15 pts. This is the best day I think I have ever had in terms of decision making, and possibly points. Maybe I should quit! Boy I am tempted to buy the 98's 99's here~~UPDATE LONG @ 3:20 @ 1399.75, STOP @ 1398.50, OH NO, STOPPED OUT @ 3:24PM A LOSS OF 5 PTS! Well thats all folks! I wouldnt be shocked if we closed flat on the day, around the 1391-93's, it doesnt seem that the buyers in the 97 area are reengageing. Good trading to you! I changed my mind, long @ 3:31 @ 1398.50, stop 1397. I got a signal right as the M period was opening. My target is 1402 UPDATE @ 3:41, trading in the 99's that is it, to much long liquidation, I am about to get stopped out, not quite, 97.25 is the low, OUT @ 1397.75 loss of 3 pts. I am surprised there wasnt more of abuy response in the 97's 98's. I am done now! Good trading to you! ps:, LOOK AT THAT, AS SOON AS I TAKE A SELF IMPOSED LOSS, IT TRADES UP TO THE 1400.75, PROBABLY ON ITS WAY TO 1402! LOL, AH, WHY COMPLAIN! IT WAS A FUN AND GOOD DAY.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 71 PTS
5/30
I am short in the beginning of the A period @ 1401.25 @ 9:32 with a stop @ 1406 above the volume cluster that we sold of off into the close from yesterday. My first area of interest is the close from yesterday @ the 97's. UPDATE @ 9:42, We hit the top of the closing range and on the retest of the 1400's on a 5 tick reversal chart, couldnt break to fill the actual gap @ yesterdays close, that worries me a bit, but on the retest of the 1401's we have passive selling, the XLF is weaker than the SP, and the NYSE tick is showing signs of weakness as is my 5000 delta bar chart, It looks as if we have a floor driven market, so I expect to test the 97's considering all things. UPDATE @ 9:59, Ttrading in the 99's, things look weak, 97's should be on the way, we might be able to get to the next volume cluster after that in the 92's, we will see how the 97's react. UPDATE @ 10:07, I am moving my stop down to 1403, just above the big blue 5000 delta footprint bar. If those passive sellers cover, 1406 is probably going to get hit, so why risk above it? I wouldnt be surprised to see a small range day today. Maybe from the 1388's to the 1403's ? Well it seems that I am going to pay for ignoring an exit signal @ 10:11 @1399.50, trying to get the 97's oh well, it doesnt look like a real exciting day in store. Stopped out @ 1403 loss 7 pts The 1405's-1406 looks like the next area of interest. Short @1404.25 @ 10:30, the stop is 1406.50 My target is the A, B period lows in the 1399's UPDATE @ 10:57, trading the 1399's once agian, Dont die agian~~OUT @ 11:00 @ 1400.50 gain 15pts Volume is once agian dropping off in the 1400 area, I am taking my points and getting back into the green. Short @ 1399.50 @ 11:27, My stop is just above the D period high @ 1401.75. This trade is a little more risky that what I generally look for, but the market is putting me to sleep. My target is the 1392's. Stopped out, loss 10pts. Lets try this agian, Short @ 1401.75 @ 12:01, My stop is 1404. Boring market today. OUT @1:21 @1401.25 gain 2 pts. I wish I would have listen to myself when I though it was going to be a slow day. I could have at least watched the ducks! With all of the passive selling, we couldnt get any inititive trade at the bid, as soon as the market trade in the 1400's, more passive buying stopped the decline. One thing I do have my eye on if I stick around is the 1399's if we get down there. ONE MORE TIME, Short @ 1402.25 @ 1:31. Same stop @ 1404, the target is the 1399's. A hit on the tick chart at the 2nd SD, with less volume delta's on the next bar. There is also more passive selling in the 1402's. A good day to practice deep breathing. Wow, getting stopped out was the most exciting thing that has happened in a while. loss 7 pts. UPDATE @ 1:54, THE REVENGE TRADE!! There is no way I have sat here this long for this boring action and all I have to show for it is a loss? I am tried, bored, mad~~ This ones for you Dr. Brett!! ~~ Short @ 1403.50 @ 1:54, stop is 1406, target 1399's. OUT @ 1401.50 @ 2:11pm. gain 8 pts. Thats all for me, Good trading to you! WHAT THE HELL, ONE LAST TRADE, SHORT @ 3:51 @ 1403.75, MY STOP IS ABOVE THE HIGH @ 1406 SAME AS LAST TIME. TARGET 1399's, Wow, that was quick, it is 4:00pm we are trading in the 1398's OUT @ 1399. Look at that, sure enough, just like yesterday morning, when everybody is asleep and given up the market moves 7 pts in a minute! I got lucky there. M period had passive selling in the 1404's after a big volume delta bar up.Look at that delta bar on the long liquidation, WOW, everybody got out at the same time! I had a gut feeling about this trade, the market spent a lot of time trading in the 1401-1404 area. that makes me feel a little more energized! gain 19 pts!
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 20 PTS