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THE AUCTION MARKET THEORY ACADEMY
"UNDERSTANDING THE SCIENCE OF MARKET STRUCTURE"
"APPLYING THE ART OF TACTICS"
"CREATING A GREAT TRADE"
DTS FEB 2008
Open another browser window and click on the chart books link. There are various archived charts for reference.
2/1
1. In the following video we are testing the H period high leading into the I period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4OtShXh7gU
This trade location was poor and I only got my first target filled. The I period low was only two points below our best entry, ant the market rallied from there almost 15 points. It looked like some short covering into the close. Volume on the SPY was light. GAIN 1.50 PTS
2. In the following video we are retesting the I period high.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYz93VZbVPk
On the first trade we got stopped out for breakeven on our second contract, after that the market came within a couple of ticks of our second target. On the second trade we are in the J period teting the I period high. I referenced the B period volume cluster, but I only got our 1st target. In hindsite I was fading a short covering rally. In the third trade we are testing the J period high during the J period into the K period. I was early, had to carry 2 more at better levels, I should have recognized at least the potential for short covering. The K period low was in the 90's. I was able to get a couple of points but the trade was poor, having not considered short covering. The negative delta turned slightly negative. GAIN 4.75 PTS
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 6.25 PTS
2/4
1. In the following video we are testing the G period low.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM9HA1q3iYc
I only got the first target. Throughout the rest of the day, trying to buy the lows of any period in anticipation of a rotation back up to the highs never happened. Same thing with the second trade leading into H period, only got the first target. On the third trade in the H period leading into the I period, I was able to in retrospect fight the ultimate direction and got filled on the first and second targets, i came within a couple of ticks from breakeven on the second contract! GAIN 9.25 PTS
2. In the following video we are in the J & K period leading into the L period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhHJCQfOak0
Or we could absolutly not! The first time I had the opportunity to break even on all 4 contracts, i didnt take it thinking it was going to rally. After it didnt, I got a second chance to get out for break even on 4 contracts after I was very close to liquidating at our 4% stoploss threshold. The L period was the period that I got out for even after suffering the K period selloff. The single mediating factor in not liquidating the 4lot for a 4 digit loss was the G period low from yesterday before the shortcovering rally. There was a lucky L period retacement that saved me, because if yesterdays G period low preceded short covering, is there any valid reason to think the market should rotate back to the high, when all day we had lower highs and lower lows through the E-N periods? I SAY NOT. GAIN BREAKEVEN.
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 9.25 PTS
2/5
1. In the following video we are midway though the E period in the first trade, moving through the afternoon hours with the 2nd and 3rd trades.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHupKZRk06w
To think the day started out so calmly! At this point in the trading day, it looked like we were rotating upward making a balanced day within the 13 point days range. That was a mistake thinking the D period low was an interday low. At the time I had no reference volume at price chart in the archives, so other than any cross trade I saw, there was no reason to by the low looking for a rotation. I did get the 1st target filled. On the second trade is the begining of a bad day, I did though get the 1st target, but in essence the retracement toward the E period high was the last rally all day to reach that level. The next period was the first sign that the afternoon session might have lower lows. Now on this third trade is the beginning of major problems and it spans a long time, from the F period to the I period. When I talk about the 52's to 54's as being supportive, I was referencing the right day, 1/31, but in retrospect it really wasnt a base of support. There was only one price with stat high volume. This was a lack of focus and preparation and lead to two other mistakes in eventually having a 6 lot on in the wrong direction. The actual valid support area was in the 45's to 47's. Interestingly I had two chances to limit the loss on six contracts, one at almost breakeven, and one much latter for about half of the actual loss. Another mistake is when I liquidated the positions at the I period low, I went short right before a J and K period rally. I did though recogize that mistake and took a 2 point loss on two contracts right away, and a good thing for that. It would have been much better to wait a while instead of reversing. This is the second time after a big mistake that I did the same thing, that is get back in to soon with poor decision making. This was a hard loss to take, because on the 7 day distribution it traded at the lower area of the distribution and rallied a few points, a few times. This is one of the reasons that I increased our loss threshold to about 10%. I did not like that. I am not ready to have that much cushion, if ever. I also hear myself saying it "should" THAT IS A PROBLEM. I also do not like scaling in to 6 lots. That is to much for this time in my career. I would like to span scaling in with 4 contracts, (2 & 2) at larger than 2 point intervals. Better yet would be to better our trade location and get out at even when given the opportunity, or get out when I am close to break even for a small loss. Those opportunity's are evident in the video. Much earlier in this trade should I have recogized that selling the highs on period rallies was the right thing to do. To little to late. LOSS 51 PTS
2. In the following video we are in the J period off of the low.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ke8fvlhIaUc
This trade in the J period was taken because I saw a positive delta in the period develop at a new intraday low. This methodology is OK in my scheme of things, the mistake was that I changed my targets and stop protocol after attaining our first target for the first contract. Also leading into the second trade in this series was another significant mistake, again I failed to compare the chart on 1/31 and see that just above its B period low was a block of trade spanning more than a point in the 38's and 39's. That made the 48's way early on the second even though I got the first target and breakeven on the second target, and the third trade in this video was also another disaster in the making. One the third trade the mistake identified above got us in way early, I should have waited for the price to test the 39's which it did, hence i doubled up with a 6 point difference, (that was a better spacing at least) and that lower avg price allowed me to get out at breakeven. A lot to think about with these trades today, mostly a lack of application of the things that were becoming apparent, that being lower volume on the recent two day rally, the break of the support level in the 57's, and the selling at the few points on the way to the days low. I should have recogized the (acually I did) days structure as making lower lows after the F or G period, and started seling rallies. At that point there was about 50K negative delta overall. I should have came to the conclusion that when the H period reversed, the buying tail from the 1/31 profile was in the sites. GAIN 2.5 PTS
TOTAL LOSS FOR THE DAY 48.5 PTS
2/6
1. In the following video we are in the A period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmOswodNJCE
For a while I stood by my desire not to better my original position. Latter on in the day, it was just not possible! More on that latter. Trying to be patient during the first 10minutes wasnt long enough. I was 8 points early, 5 minutes later we made the A period low, then to rally 20 pts! All I can say is that there is a lot of potential in my trading!! On the second trade, still in the A period, we are shorting! A REVERSE TYPE OF TRADE BASED ON THE CROSS TRADE THAT WE REEVALUATED OUR EXIT ON THE SECONC CONTRACT, WHY? Only based on cross trade. THAT IS A MISTAKE. LOOK AT THE CHART BOOK FOR REFERENCE HIGH VOLUME AREAS. We just succsessfully tested the 32's to the 35's range. There isnt a good block of resistance even up to the K period high of 2/5. Way early, I was lucky to get the 1st target even though the market sold off a bit. The comment on the Globex inventory was accurate, as they took the market down over 15 from the premarket consolidation right near the low of the 1/31st, before the rally to the D period. Missed opportunity from the first opportunity with long @43's. the potential was at least 10 pts on that move to the D period high. GAIN 3PTS
2. In the following video we are in the C period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Qqtqs2zx_4
I almost got both targets one the first trade but I was still on the wrong side of the action, for the D period high is 9 pts above our entry. The market moving quickly should have alerted me to look at the 2/5 chart K period. On the second trade, short from the same price, I averaged in at 48, with 2 more contracts. (Not very disiplined, I couldnt refuse the cross trade. This might be a sign that I am to dependant on just the cross trade) I was still 5 points below the D period high. That was a $1200 potential loss. I agian got a chance to break even because the K period high from 2/5 was resistance. At least that point was eventually acted upon, stopping us from liquidating at the high. There was no heavy block of trade though to stop the market, just the obvious reversal. GAIN 2.25 PTS
3. In the following video we are in the G period moving through the next few periods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_Lq-Od62lw
These series of trades are all wrong, after commenting on the fact that the day looked like a balanced day structure, I was trying to buy the G and H period low in the 42's! on three occassions! The E period not making a new high over D, and F making a lower low than D, and at the mean of the day, the probability was to test the other end of value, not rally to new highs! Slap Slap! I got lucky getting the 1st targets on the first and second trade. The third trade was really bad, I took 2 contracts down with me almost 10 points! I did avg in 9 pts lower so I did get out for even. That makes two times that happened today. BAD TRADE, GOOD DECISION TO AVG IN AND GET OUT FOR BREAK EVEN. I think that is where the beauty of AVERAGING IN AT A LOT LOWER PRICE WORKS TO GET OUT OF A BAD TRADE. THOSE COMMENTS ABOUT SUPPORT ARE NOT AS RELEVANT AFTER MOVING BACK TO THE MEAN FROM THE UPPER VALUE AREA, AS THE LOWER VALUE AREA BECOMES A RESONABLE TARGET. LOSS 1.75 PTS
4. In the following video we are in the end of the L period in the first trade, moving through the M period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYALDMDhivo
These trades offered more risk than return. My thought was a return to the mean after testing the 29's but in reality, we already broke through the 32's support area of 1/31's low. WHY AM I BUYING DOWN HERE. OH I GOT IT, CROSS TRADE. PROBLEM, LOOK AT THE LARGER PICTURE. The M period only rallied up a couple of points before a move down to the 24's. The third trade I liquidated it quickly for a couple of points realizing the poor risk to return so late in the day, good thing, as it went down from there only to rally back to about break even on the closing tick. GAIN.25 PTS
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 3.75 PTS
2/7
1. In the following video we are in the F period moving through the next few periods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWL3oKKt2Z0
2. In the following video we are in the L period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=081ysMHfslw
2/8
1. In the following video we are in the I period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QWYm0sPjig
2. In the following video we are in the L period leading into the M period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIiT_wwh5Ao
2/11
1. In the following video we are in the A period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hte4p4Ad6_4
2. In the following video we are in the D period leading into the E period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoCEYWXxMhU
3. In the following video we are in the F period testing the A period high through H and G period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4C5IcLewpA
4. In the following video we are in the K period testing the 34's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwZruXoG1Rw
5. In the following video we are in the K period after having tested the 34's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypPGkagbXow
2/12
1. In the following video we are in the A period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaa60YjfYHo
2. In the following video we are in the end of B period into C period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cThLELkelMY
3. In the following video we are in the I period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6LKaxvliXU
4. In the following video we are in the J -L period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tQU5tFDhMg
5. In the following video we are in the M period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7ThWuhwTBg
2/13
1. In the following video we are in the A period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUiAIWZ1yUA
2. In the following video we are in the C period heading toward yesterdays close.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqG85xOprwc
3. In the following video we are in the beginning of E period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBxTN9fhyiE
4. In the following video we are in the F period testing the B period high.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fkuiwjwh0uQ
5. In the following video we are in the H period retesting of the B and F period high.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyrIvgdQ59w
6. In the following video we are in the H-I period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un7BaOCYgjY
7. In the following video we are in the J period open, leading into K period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNp6IJGVe6A
8. In the following video we are in the L period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xHO3pFAARU
2/14
1. In the following video we are in the E period noving into the F period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpJddOlXne4
2. In the following we are in the I-J-K-L period. We had technical difficulties with the video.
2/15
1. In the following video we are in the B-C-D-E-F-G periods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wQeNPOO7mA
2. In the following video we are in the H period noving into the I period testing the E period high.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayDq_duyjuk
3. In the following video we are in the end of L period moving into M.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cagwh-6J0E
2/19
1. In the following video we are in the A period moving into the B and C period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzRIrrqw12Q
In the premarket comments, I had the a good insight for the day selling the high of A period but didnt stay with the trade to the full. I got out because of the 5tick reversal chart. If I waited for the 56's it would have been a 20+ point trade. I NEED TO TAKE BREAKS FROM WATCHING THE 5TICK CHART SO MUCH IF I AM GOING TO MAXIMIZE OPPORTUNITY. I NEED TO TRADE LESS AND BE MORE PATIENT. The buy on the second trade was wrong, there was no large body of data that identified that the gap wasnt going to close as we were only in the C period, I also heard myself basing the exit on the NYSE tick chart. Way early for a reversal. If I did try to catch the reversal I should have tried closer to the closing range of the gap. Same mistake was made in the opening trade of the next video. GAIN 7 PTS.
2. In the following video we are in the D heading toward the gap, and then into E period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMlzsC8D4XA
On the first trade we were 4 points early and with a 2 pt stop, had no chance of working, yet the rotation in the following periods, (E-F-G-H PERIODS) was 10 points from the D period low. To much talk, not enough patience. On the next trades, it was a good thought of closing the gap correctly, but did not. Agian, poor trade location not an asymetrical opportunity. When I saw the big block of two sided trade at the 54-55 area, I should have not been shorting the market looking for a gap fill from that point. Bad risk to reward. LOSS 7PTS
3. In the following video we are in the F period testing the H period high moving into the G period and then through the end of H period into I period while testing the B period high.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDlV8WF732w
All three trades in this series of videos except for the last one were early as we should have recognized that the initiative selling didnt happen at the C period high, rather the B period high was the area of greater opportunity. In the third trade I had a great trade location at the H period high. I made a statement that the tick chart was showing me something that almost talked me out of the position. My focus should not have been on the tick chart though, but rather on the fact the the B period high was resistance and good for a first TPO short. The problem was I got shaken out, and the market over the next hours fell 20 points. I NEED PATIENCE!! AND NOT TO FOCUS SO MUCH ON THE 5TICK REVERSAL CHART. I MUST REMEMBER IT TAKES TIME FOR THE MARKETS TO START MOVING. GAIN 2 PTS
4. In the following video we are in the I-J-K-L periods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x96lTm5UXdI
In the next three trades, they were all wrong, as I changed my mind of testing the gap at the low, and thought the market was going to test the gap above us. Just plain wrong. AGAIN I WAS IN A TRADE THAT DID NOT HAVE AN ASYMETRICAL RISK TO REWARD. The H period high was the location, and J period was a fake out early as it rallied to only the I period high. I missed some signals on the NYSE tick chart as I am still learning. The buy on the last trade in the video was still 4 points above the next periods low. The market went to an area from friday where the market rallied over the D-I-J period. THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN AN OBVIOUS TARGET INSTEAD OF THE CLOSING RANGE OF THE PERIOD AFTER WE TRADED BELOW IT TOWARD THE END OF THE K PERIOD. LOSS 13.5 PTS
TOTAL LOSS FOR THE DAY -11.5 PTS
2/20
1. In the following video we are in the D period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVnPez4HI-U
I had technical difficulties with our trading software and our recording software but did get a great trade location in retrospect, didnt hold on long enough to reach our first target that I talked about, which we did hit eventually. I am making an effort not to trade more than 3 times in a day. GAIN 7 PTS
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 7PTS
2/21
1. In the following video we are in the C period during the first trade, moving into the D and H periods for the second and third trade.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYUC1pFA6cs
Boy of Boy, did I miss a nice trade at the open. I have to make sure I get enough rest to wake up! This is the time frame that I would like to focus on. A little early on the first trade, a 3 point stop was not enough. I would like to try a 5 point stop with a trade at the open. On the second trade I had OK trade location with a resonable analysis of the reversal back up from yestersday volume cluster at the 52-s to 54-s. Our exit was close to the E period high. Going into the third trade, was a mistake. The opportunity was a reverse at the E period high since that was an area of high volume during the C period sell down. The 3rd trade, I did wait a while, but not long enough, as a matter of fact, the 3rd trade should have been a reverse I just spoke about. The next short opportunity was a K period high, the NYSE tick chart up to that point had a negative bias, so the 53's were it. Trying to buy the G or H period expecting a rally in a down trend is risky with a close stop. Better to wait until there is a rally like that in J or K period. The closing comments about testing the lower end of value was right on, and I stuck by my rule of only trading 3 times a day. CONGRATS! LOSS 4.5 PTS
TOTAL LOSS FOR THE DAY -4.5 PTS
2/22
1. In the following video we are in the B-C-F periods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCm5IUKwshw
2. In the following video we are in the J period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JX7nxBWdp0
3. In the following video we are in the K period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xa3kbF3H1k
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 6.5 PTS
2/25
1. In the following video we are in the opening of A period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UUHf-TdjSw
Getting out of the trade after missing the 10am new release on housing was the right decision. It saved me from turning a positive trade into a negative trade. If I held on I would have hit my stop. I did talk about the 47 area, but didnt act on it fast enough, then the news came out. My intial target of 38 never got hit, the 47's were the low. GAIN 7.5 PTS
2. In the following video we are concluding comments from the previous video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stbE9U87aHk
I got locked out of the house for 6 hrs. All I did was plot revenge! Lots of gain! Funny how all the neighbors work during the day!
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 7.5 PTS
2/26
1. In the following video we are in the opening of A period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7P95vhUFG0g
2. In the following video we are in the A-B-C-D-E period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StKPo7zRQDM
TOTAL LOSS FOR THE DAY 3 PTS
2/27
1. In the following video we are in the opening of A period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aa1guGEGhM
2. In the following video we are in the H period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YKqFY7Stg0
3. In the following video we are in the J period.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpWTUyQm3O4
TOTAL GAIN FOR THE DAY 5 PTS
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